// Open access / in progress

Public briefs.

A readable judgement about one change: the evidence, its transmission path, and what remains unknown. This is not a place where “hot” pretends to be research.

The first brief is now published. Every following piece still needs primary sources, explicit boundaries, and a judgement that can be tested.

First public brief · 2026.07.29

Not a Depression: Two Forces Are Pulling the Global Economy Apart

Using the July IMF update to separate continued growth from an improvement in consumer demand, cost, and risk everywhere.

What belongs here

Macro and consumer-market changes that can support a decision—or a reason to keep watching.

What does not

Precision forecasts without primary evidence, or a pile of second-hand news dressed up as research.

What it can become

Once there is real judgement and auditable material, some topics can grow into strategy research or brand deep dives.